Conviction Means Biden Is Done. Race is Trump/Kennedy Now.
The conviction of President Donald Trump on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in New York State Court yesterday will send shockwaves through politics.
Looming over this conviction of suspect legality is the ghost of the Paxton impeachment. Like Trump’s trial, Paxton’s articles of impeachment were passed through injudicious and legally appalling means.
Paxton was impeached on financial misconduct offenses and other alleged crimes that the voters were well aware of when they overwhelmingly reelected him in November of 2022. This impeachment was done without sworn testimony from witnesses and a conviction in any court. Indeed, many of the cases against Paxton that the impeachment rested upon have since been dropped.
After the Texas Attorney General was acquitted in the Senate, voters were outraged at what had been done to him. His impeachment became the number one issue that drove voters to the polls in the Texas Republican Primary.
Signs informing voters how candidates like State Rep. Stephanie Klick voted on Paxton’s impeachment were as common as the campaign signs themselves in North Texas.
Subsequently, 15 House Republicans lost their jobs. Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan, who led the impeachment, was forced into a runoff that he barely survived.
This is what should be anticipated from the Trump conviction. Polls are already showing the supposed vote turning we were supposed to see if Trump was convicted is not happening.
The Politico survey of insular self-appointed experts at dying establishment magazines has shown this effete corp largely celebrating the conviction–– because the mainstream corporate press can not learn. This moment of gloating will only exacerbate the oncoming shakeup.
It is reminiscent of a recent episode seen in school boards across the country. The first is the national media (NBC) and the Biden Department of Education bearing down on the Southlake-Carroll ISD for resisting CRT and DEI programs. In essence, residents of Southlake believe that both the media and the federal government are carrying out a political hit on them.
This is not the only time parents have felt this way–– and it is not the only time they have been right. The second instance was the recent congressional investigation that found the Department of Justice had “no legitimate basis” in 2021 for targeting parents protesting at school board meetings in Virginia as “domestic terrorists.” During the initial school board protests, The Washington Post had written a headline titled “Parents claim they have the right to shape their kids’ school curriculum. They Don’t.”
This conviction will make voters feel that when Trump says, “They’re [media and government] not after me, they’re after you, and I just happen to be standing in the way,” the former president is correct.
Indeed, it will play into a sense among voters that the DNC, which changed more than 60 party rules to repel the campaign of RFK Jr, is yet again denying citizens a choice of candidates by trying to remand the opposition to prison. Voters are angry about this and it will fuel the sentiment Trump laid out when he said, “I am your retribution.”
Perhaps Ann Coulter put it most succinctly.
Voters Shifting
There will be two forthcoming voting shifts. First, the Trump base will rally and turn out in massive numbers. Attacks can make people rally behind candidates they did not initially intend to vote for, read Pat Buchanan’s Nixon’s Whitehouse Wars for more information. Longtime Republicans who were skeptical of Trump and considering jumping ship will be so appalled that they will also rally around the 45th president.
This rally effect went into full swing last night.
Winred crashed for a period after the conviction was announced and the former president raised $34 million in an evening on his campaign website.
Biden’s base will ventilate; we will see this in a variety of ways, some of which are already underway.
Uncomfortable with this historic miscarriage of justice, some Biden 2020 voters will switch to RFK Jr. This will not come from Biden’s core supporters. Rather it will come from those who lean in 2024 Biden or voted Biden in 2020 as a protest vote.
Notably, “Trump or Biden” was trending on Twitter after the conviction was handed down. The top three tweets leading this trend all concerned Kennedy. One was a clip of a news program discussing Kennedy, and the other two were from the man himself.
This artifact of social media seems to indicate that there is fresh attention flooding to Kennedy from the historically Biden-sympathetic Gen Z and Millenial Twitter audience.
The handful of remaining white working Democrats who are sympathetic to Trump but voted with Biden because of their union affiliations will also vote for Kennedy. They will be motivated to do this because of their frustration with the Biden Administration over the incumbent president’s pursuit of green energy projects which are largely outsourcing union jobs. They will jump to Kennedy not because the recent UAW strike (for example) and the Trump conviction are connected but because it is the straw that broke the camel’s back.
However, we should not expect to see this shift reflected in the polls before election day. The proportion of white working-class union members who voted for Biden is small and will only manifest in districts that don’t typically respond to CNN polls. (See the 2016 election for more information).
The Black Vote
There has been a long unrealized hope among Republicans that they can win a significant portion of the black vote. They can not–– at least not in this election.
Sexyy Red, the rapper, and others have signaled a political realignment amongst blacks for Trump since the pandemic. While some of their sympathies may be with Trump, they can not be expected to turn out in large numbers.
Except for aberrational years like 2008, when Obama was first on the ballot, blacks do not turn out to vote in proportions representative of their share of the population. Often, black voter turnout is low and inconsistent.
The modern black identity is tightly intertwined with the Democrat Party. It is unlikely frustration with the current state of the economy could unwind this connection.
However, certain subgroups like black males may shift further to the right. If the election were held today, polling indicates Trump set a modern record by winning around 20% of the black electorate. Among black males in battleground states, the polling is even more favorable to Trump. A recent Pew Poll found that Trump would win around 30% of young black males aged 18-49.
Given the fact that black men are, according to Pew, around 2% more inclined to vote than black women, this could add a slight boost for Republicans in 2024.
The reason this shift may accelerate is because the DNC has created a story that many black men may identify with. It resembles narratives common in rap music regarding persecution from the law and being at the edges of polite society.
This boost will likely result in a small bump for Trump and a major bump for Republicans running in down-ballot races in places like Michigan and Georgia.
The thing to watch is how RFK Jr affects these polls. Until recently, Kennedy has not been included in many polls so it is hard to gauge the effect he is having. However, it is hard to believe someone as connected to the mythology of the Civil Rights Act as a Kennedy would not draw some proportion of black votes.
The central question with this demographic will be: who can pad their numbers with the largest share of a cohort that will likely be mostly disengaged?
Conclusion
This is not the moment to celebrate. The election has not been decided yet.
However, this may be a fatal blow to the Biden campaign, which will be unable to overcome the cloud of corruption, that will hang over this action.
The election now is between Trump and Kennedy.
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