Another Nuclear Hoax?
Do scary Russian Space Nukes endanger us all?
(Russian nukes in a 2014 military parade, courtesy of CNN)
Nuclear hoaxes are like phony stories of innocent unarmed black men being killed en masse by police without justification.
The exact same story is trotted out every year, it is eventually disproven, and then we rinse, wash, and repeat the next year.
“U.S. Fears Russia Might Put a Nuclear Weapon in Space,” the front page of The New York Times read today.
“American spy agencies are divided on whether Moscow would go so far, but the concern is urgent enough that Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has asked China and India to try to talk Russia down,” the subheader read.
The body text of the story follows a tired pattern “X country is [short amount of time] away from nuclear strike on [United States or Y Ally], experts say.”
Many may remember the supposed imminent Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine, last year:
“Biden warns the threat of Putin’s using tactical nuclear weapons is ‘real’” NBC News, July 2023
“Is Russia ready to use tactical nuclear weapons?” GIS Reports, July 2023
“Why Putin Will Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine” Russia Matters, May 2023
“Putin Allies Split Over Using Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine” The Moscow Times, May 2023
A similar story had run in the corporate press the previous year.
“Russian Military Leaders Discussed Use of Nuclear Weapons, U.S. Officials Say” The New York Times, November 2022
“Petraeus: US would destroy Russia’s troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine” The Guardian, October 2022
“What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?” The Atlantic, June 2022
“'Yes, He Would': Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes” Politico, February 2022
Yet, a Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine never materialized.
Indeed it stretched credulity to think it would. Intelligence documents allegedly leaked by Jack Teixeria indicated that U.S.-backed Ukraine was already losing the war by the time the nuclear strike stories were circulating.
Why would a major power provoke the world when it was winning?
These stories strongly resembled a supposed threat of a Russian nuclear strike on Poland in the late 2000s.
However, Russia is not the only country that is an “imminent nuclear threat” to the United States. Iran has been 6 months to 2 years away from a nuclear bomb since 1984.
Here is a brief catalog of Iran’s “imminent” nuclear war capabilities from the 2010s:
“American intelligence officials say it will take at least a year, perhaps five, for Iran to develop the full ability to make a nuclear weapon.” The New York Times, November 2014
“Iran is literally weeks to months away from [having a nuclear bomb]” Senator Bob Menendez, February 2014
“Netanyahu’s claim that Iran is ‘six months’ from having nuclear bomb material” The Washington Post, September 2012
All of this is to say nothing of the supposed WMDs Iraq had in the early 2000s or the unrealized threat, now almost totally forgotten, of suitcase nukes in the mid-2000s.
It seems almost comical that the suitcase nuke myth has resurfaced (video above), this time rebooted with a Russian villain, almost exactly 20 years after nuclear experts finally admitted it was never a reality.
This is not to say that nuclear threats should not be taken seriously. If threatened enough, any country could use nuclear armaments.
While there is no question that many countries like Iran want nuclear arms, American and Israeli efforts to retard their weapons programs have been successful. STUXNET was believed to have destroyed 10% of Iran’s uranium enrichment centrifuges.
Further, no threat of nuclear force has been acted upon since President Truman dropped the second bomb on Nagasaki.
Moreover, the current nuclear threat would only be used against satellites in space. This would not kill any Americans.
While it would disrupt the economy and communications, it would not end terrestrial civilization.
If any alarm should be raised from the latest supposedly imminent nuclear threat, it should be about what has nudged Russia toward this action and our dependence on satellites for essential economic and governmental functions.
(READ MORE: What You Were Never Told About Russia/Ukraine War)
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